SUMMARY
The Fund fell by -0.1% in October. By way of comparison, the Australian stock market declined by -1.3% in the month, whilst the return of the RBA cash rate plus 6% equated to approximately +0.8% for the month. Financial year to date, the Fund has achieved a return of +5.4%, ahead of the cash plus 6% benchmark of +3.4% over the same period, whilst the broader market has returned +6.4%. We are pleased with the continued momentum for the Fund this financial year, and to be tracking comfortably ahead of our cash plus 6% benchmark.
The prevailing theme of the month was a partial reversal of the rotation from Banks to Materials that dominated the domestic market in the first quarter of the financial year. The rotation was originally triggered by the announcement of stimulus measures from China, however after some early excitement, the lack of follow through from Chinese policy makers in October somewhat disappointed, resulting in the domestic Banks recovering from their lows and Resources drifting lower into the month end. The Australian dollar once again retreated, falling almost 5% relative to the USD and Iron Ore similarly came under pressure, down 7% over the month. Discretionary consumer names also came under pressure during the month, as updates from AGM season painted a picture of a struggling consumer – suggesting that cost of living pressures may finally be impacting household spending patterns, after a prolonged period of resilience. With aggregate consensus earnings forecasts remaining broadly stable across the month, the market multiple has fallen slightly to (a still elevated) 17.9x forward earnings (vs 18.3x in September).






COMMENTARY
Evolution Mining was the largest positive contributor to the Fund during October, having delivered some consistency in its operations and benefiting fully from the ongoing strength in Gold prices. Resmed continued its positive contributions, with a solid first quarter trading update maintaining confidence in its operating momentum. Stocks such as SG Fleet, Credit Corp, and Ryman Healthcare all contributed strongly as their value has gradually re-emerged following previous periods of softer trading.
Detractors in October were primarily focused on the retail names, specifically Metcash, Super Retail Group, and Woolworths. As discussed above, these names reported softer trading environments throughout Q3 and we watch closely as they enter the important seasonal trading period of November and December. BHP was also a detractor for the Fund during the month, caught up in the reversal of resource stocks discussed above, albeit the Fund has a lower exposure to that stock, as well as the overall Resource sector, than the market.
From a trading perspective we took the opportunity to add to positions across a number of names over the quarter, in particular Ampol Limited and Maas Group Holdings. We reduced our exposure to the banks on the back of strength in October, in particular to the more expensive CBA, and to a lesser extent NAB. The Fund also trimmed positions in Evolution Mining and CSL during the month.
We continue to believe that the Fund is well positioned to navigate the existing volatility and deliver on our objective of cash plus 6% in the medium term, given its defensive positioning, with solid balance sheets, and focus on businesses generating cash now. At month end the portfolio was generating an after tax cash earnings yield of ~6% for FY25 – underpinning our focus on fundamental value. Our expectation of these earnings, combined with further earnings growth, capital returns, and potential for valuation multiple uplifts provide comfort in achieving our return objectives.
We remain as focused as ever on our primary objectives of capital preservation and generating a reasonable real return for our investors. We continue to believe this is best served by a disciplined approach and consistent investment methodology. A variety of good businesses run by honest and competent management teams at the right price will create a well-diversified portfolio of ever-growing cash earnings streams.