Ampol Ltd. engages in the supply of transport fuels. It offers business services, fuel cards, lubricants and oil finder. The firm operates through the following segments: Fuels and Infrastructure, Convenience Retail, Z Energy, and Corporate. The Fuel and Infrastructure segment includes Lytton refining, bulk fuels sales, trading and shipping, infrastructure, future energy, and seaoil business. The Convenience Retail segment covers fuels and shop offerings at the company's Australian network of stores. The Z Energy deals with fuel offerings in New Zealand market. The Corporate segment represents the head office and transactions related to finance, taxation, treasury, HR, IT, legal. and secretarial functions. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
COMMENTARY
Australian headlines in May were dominated by the Federal Budget and interest rate expectations. Globally, however, markets remained focused on AI enablers, a theme that was expressed here through mining stocks. Copper and lithium exposures were particularly strong with the portfolio benefiting from its holding in BHP. Gold remained weak, although central bank selling moderated, and we see scope for the sector to rebase and provide stability against geopolitical uncertainty again.
Comfortingly, stock specifics still matter. Metcash delivered a solid trading update despite the continuing structural tobacco decline. Liquor margins were higher and the Hardware business has stabilised defying the bears and highlighting the value at 10x PE and 6.5% fully franked dividend yield.
Similarly, Orica delivered a result that drove upgrades and showed its value as a “picks and shovels” play for those transition metals as well as coal which is in greater demand with rising LNG prices.
On the downside CSL continues to struggle but now trades on 11x PE for double digit earnings growth. Ampol suffered weakness that was more short term as refining margins and oil prices drifted off on hopes of a resolution in Iran.
The housing market came into question post the Budget changes to CGT and negative gearing. Whilst we don’t see a material impact on the banks earnings, the share price corrections highlight that the record multiples they trade on are based on the market’s supreme confidence in the domestic macro economy and not their growth.
During the month we reacted to share price strength in Medibank and Macquarie Group by reducing our holdings. Our only significant buy was to participate in the discounted sell down of Contact Energy by NZ infrastructure investor Infratil to top up our holding in an indirect beneficiary of AI and the rush for data centre power in Australian and New Zealand. We have raised cash levels to over 9% ready to take advantage of what this current volatility throws up.
There are some incredible developments coming for global capital markets as AI companies open themselves up to the scrutiny of public listing. This global event will undoubtedly impact our market too and we expect opportunities to arise from both greed and fear. For us, those opportunities will continue to be found in high-quality businesses led by proven management teams and supported by resilient cash flows that can flourish regardless of the thematics.