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Australian Equities Fund

A portfolio of Australian businesses with transparent and resilient business models

January 2022 - Monthly REPORT

Portfolio well positioned to navigate the onset of a new market environment

SUMMARY

In January, the concerns that we have been expressing regarding non-transitory inflation and an inflection point in the interest rate cycle, unfortunately, came to fruition, and the subsequent share price correction was broad-based and indiscriminate.

We are confident in the positioning of the portfolio, being concentrated in high-quality, resilient businesses capable of navigating and even thriving in this anticipated difficult environment.  The underlying after-tax cash yield of the portfolio is now tracking at approximately 7.5% – one of the highest levels that we have experienced, and representing strong value in our view.  We have added to positions selectively during January at attractive prices and are anticipating a positive February reporting season as our companies demonstrate their resilience and underlying value with actual results – with early reporting from Credit Corp, Amcor, James Hardie, and Resmed already providing good examples.  The portfolio is in very good shape.

PORTFOLIO

Top Holdings (alphabetically)

Amcor PLC
Australia
Materials
Aristocrat Leisure
Australia
Consumer Discretionary
Credit Corp
Australia
Financials
CSL
Australia
Health Care
Evolution Mining
Australia
Materials
Mirvac Group Property Trust
Australia
Real Estate
NAB
Australia
Financials
ResMed
Australia
Health Care
Super Retail Group
Australia
Consumer Discretionary
Telstra
Australia
Communication Services

Sector Breakdown

Capitalisation Breakdown

Country Breakdown

Custom Sector Breakdown

PERFORMANCE

Performance Table

NET PERFORMANCE FOR PERIODS ENDING 31 Jan 20221
1 MTH 1 YEAR 3 YEARS P.A. 5 YEARS P.A. 10 YEARS P.A. SINCE INCEPTION P.A.
Australian Equities Fund -6.7% 5.7% 9.3% 5.9% 9.3% 9.3%
Fund Objective: RBA Cash Rate plus 6% 0.5% 6.1% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7% 8.4%
ASX Accumulation All Ordinaries Index -6.6% 9.7% 10.8% 9.1% 9.7% 6.6%

Swipe horizontally to see all columns

Performance Chart

NET PERFORMANCE SINCE INCEPTION2

COMMENTARY

The Fund generated a -6.7% return in the month of January.  By way of comparison, the (annual) return of the RBA cash rate + 6% equated to approximately +0.5% for the month, whilst the Australian stock market similarly declined by -6.6% over the month.

As recent readers of our monthly reports will recall, we have been discussing the risk of a pullback in the valuations for large parts of the market for some time.  In particular, we have been concerned about the impact of non-transitory inflation and the inflection point in the trajectory of interest rates, from a sustained period of rate reductions to levels near zero globally (creating a tailwind to long-duration assets), to the emergence of what appears likely to be a period of interest rate rises.  Unfortunately, in January, our concerns proved to be correct.  Despite overall market earnings estimates actually rising slightly during the month, share prices tumbled across the board reflecting the market adjusting to a new environment as described above – higher inflation, and higher rates.

We note that the particular cohort of stocks whose valuations had escalated the most – the Industrials ex Financials – saw a substantial de-rating over the month, and after peaking at almost 31x forward earnings as recently as October, finished January at 26x forward earnings – still at levels well above historical averages.   The largest detractors amongst this group were the ‘growth’ companies (often tech-related) whose valuations are based primarily on future earnings (often loss-making today).  We have long struggled with how investors assess valuation support amongst that cohort, and we find that the lack of clarity on that point exacerbates the declines in markets such as these – the old trader’s term “catching falling knives” comes immediately to mind…

Given the elevated levels of volatility, lower seasonal trading volumes, and the short-term nature of the period in question, the January sell-off was unfortunately not limited to the stocks above.  The indiscriminate nature of the correction, combined with the large index re-weighting of BHP in the month meant that core positions for the Fund such as Telstra, CSL, NAB, Aristocrat, Mirvac, etc were also caught up in the general search for liquidity.  Put options held by the fund expired mid-January, at a point in time where prices to renew had substantially escalated, leaving us without the protection we had held for some time.  We would also observe that we entered the month with a lower level of cash than we typically have held leading into previous market corrections – evidence of our ‘bottom up’ management of cash holdings.

Despite the indiscriminate nature of the January correction, we are confident in the positioning of the portfolio, being concentrated in high-quality, resilient businesses capable of navigating and even thriving in the anticipated difficult environment. The underlying after-tax cash yield of the portfolio is now tracking at approximately 7.5% – one of the highest levels that we have experienced, and representing strong value in our view.

We have added to positions selectively during January at attractive prices and are anticipating a positive February reporting season as our companies demonstrate their resilience and underlying value with actual results – with early reporting from Credit Corp, Amcor, James Hardie, and Resmed already providing good examples.  The portfolio is in very good shape.

Despite an elevated level of short-term noise, we remain as focused as ever on our primary objectives of capital preservation and generating a reasonable real return for our investors.  We continue to believe this is best served by a disciplined approach and consistent investment methodology. A variety of good businesses run by honest and competent management teams at the right price will create a well-diversified portfolio of ever-growing cash earnings streams.

PERFORMANCE TABLE

FUND PERFORMANCE (A$, NET OF FEES)
Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun FUND FYTD RBA CASH RATE FYTD ASX ALL ORDS FYTD
2021/2022 0.3%3%-0.4%-1.1%-0.6%1%-6.7%-12%0.2%-7.4%
2020/2021 1.5%2%-2%1.5%10.2%2.3%-0.9%0.3%3.1%3.6%2.6%1.1%27.7%0.2%30.2%
2019/2020 3.2%0.6%1.4%-0.5%3.5%-3.3%2.3%-3.5%-19.5%8.5%6.2%0.1%-3.9%0.7%-7.2%
2018/2019 1.3%3.4%-2.5%-8%-1.6%-2%2.4%3.4%-1.1%2.9%4.9%1.2%3.6%1.5%11%
2017/2018 0.6%1%0.1%1.9%3.2%0.1%1.5%-1.3%-3%-0%2.5%1.5%8.1%1.5%13.7%
2016/2017 6.1%2.3%0.3%-3%-0.3%3.4%-0.8%0.7%1.8%1.7%-4.7%2.7%10.2%1.5%13.1%
2015/2016 3.3%-4.2%-0.6%4.1%3.4%0.2%-1.8%-3.2%3.1%0.7%4.6%-1.6%7.7%2%2%
2014/2015 1.9%1.5%-2.4%2.5%0%1.4%2.6%4%1.3%-1.7%1.1%-3.5%8.9%2.4%5.7%
2013/2014 2%2.3%1.4%2.3%-1.2%1.3%-2%1.4%-0.4%1.2%1.5%-1%9.1%2.5%17.6%
2012/2013 2.9%2.5%0.2%2.4%2.8%1.8%5.2%4.4%0%3.5%-1.3%-2.5%24%3.1%20.7%
2011/2012 -3.1%1.4%-2.4%4.7%-2.4%1%2.9%3.6%4.2%0.7%-1.1%-1.1%8.3%4.4%-7%
2010/2011 5.1%1.1%3.6%1.8%-0.1%3%0.7%1.5%1%0%-0.8%-0.5%17.4%4.7%12.2%
2009/2010 3.5%6.1%3.8%1.2%1%2.5%-3.6%1.1%3.6%-0.2%-4%-2.5%12.5%3.7%13.8%
2008/2009 -1%3.5%-4.7%-9%-5.3%3.9%0.2%-1.4%7.9%4.4%2.1%3.8%3%4.8%-22.1%

2022/2023

Jul 6.4%
Aug -0.1%
Sep -6.1%
Oct 2.7%
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun

2021/2022

Jul 0.3%
Aug 3%
Sep -0.4%
Oct -1.1%
Nov -0.6%
Dec 1%
Jan -6.7%
Feb 1.3%
Mar 1.9%
Apr -0.6%
May -3%
Jun -7%
FUND FYTD -12%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 0.2%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD -7.4%

2020/2021

Jul 1.5%
Sep -2%
Oct 1.5%
Nov 10.2%
Dec 2.3%
Jan -0.9%
Feb 0.3%
Mar 3.1%
Apr 3.6%
May 2.6%
Aug 2%
Jun 1.1%
FUND FYTD 27.7%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 0.2%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD 30.2%

2019/2020

Jul 3.2%
Aug 0.6%
Sep 1.4%
Oct -0.5%
Nov 3.5%
Dec -3.3%
Jan 2.3%
Feb -3.5%
Apr 8.5%
Mar -19.5%
May 6.2%
Jun 0.1%
FUND FYTD -3.9%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 0.7%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD -7.2%

2018/2019

Jul 1.3%
Aug 3.4%
Sep -2.5%
Oct -8%
Nov -1.6%
Dec -2%
Jan 2.4%
Feb 3.4%
Mar -1.1%
Apr 2.9%
May 4.9%
Jun 1.2%
FUND FYTD 3.6%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 1.5%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD 11%

2017/2018

Jul 0.6%
Aug 1%
Sep 0.1%
Oct 1.9%
Nov 3.2%
Dec 0.1%
Jan 1.5%
Feb -1.3%
Mar -3%
Apr -0%
May 2.5%
Jun 1.5%
FUND FYTD 8.1%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 1.5%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD 13.7%

2016/2017

Jul 6.1%
Aug 2.3%
Sep 0.3%
Oct -3%
Nov -0.3%
Dec 3.4%
Jan -0.8%
Feb 0.7%
Mar 1.8%
Apr 1.7%
May -4.7%
Jun 2.7%
FUND FYTD 10.2%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 1.5%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD 13.1%

2015/2016

Jul 3.3%
Aug -4.2%
Sep -0.6%
Oct 4.1%
Nov 3.4%
Dec 0.2%
Jan -1.8%
Feb -3.2%
Mar 3.1%
Apr 0.7%
May 4.6%
Jun -1.6%
FUND FYTD 7.7%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 2%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD 2%

2014/2015

Jul 1.9%
Aug 1.5%
Sep -2.4%
Oct 2.5%
Nov 0%
Dec 1.4%
Jan 2.6%
Feb 4%
Mar 1.3%
Apr -1.7%
May 1.1%
Jun -3.5%
FUND FYTD 8.9%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 2.4%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD 5.7%

2013/2014

Jul 2%
Aug 2.3%
Sep 1.4%
Oct 2.3%
Nov -1.2%
Dec 1.3%
Jan -2%
Feb 1.4%
Mar -0.4%
Apr 1.2%
May 1.5%
Jun -1%
FUND FYTD 9.1%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 2.5%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD 17.6%

2012/2013

Jul 2.9%
Aug 2.5%
Sep 0.2%
Oct 2.4%
Nov 2.8%
Dec 1.8%
Jan 5.2%
Feb 4.4%
Mar 0%
Apr 3.5%
May -1.3%
Jun -2.5%
FUND FYTD 24%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 3.1%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD 20.7%

2011/2012

Jul -3.1%
Aug 1.4%
Sep -2.4%
Oct 4.7%
Nov -2.4%
Dec 1%
Jan 2.9%
Feb 3.6%
Mar 4.2%
Apr 0.7%
May -1.1%
Jun -1.1%
FUND FYTD 8.3%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 4.4%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD -7%

2010/2011

Jul 5.1%
Aug 1.1%
Sep 3.6%
Oct 1.8%
Nov -0.1%
Dec 3%
Jan 0.7%
Feb 1.5%
Mar 1%
Apr 0%
May -0.8%
Jun -0.5%
FUND FYTD 17.4%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 4.7%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD 12.2%

2009/2010

Jul 3.5%
Aug 6.1%
Sep 3.8%
Oct 1.2%
Nov 1%
Dec 2.5%
Jan -3.6%
Feb 1.1%
Mar 3.6%
Apr -0.2%
May -4%
Jun -2.5%
FUND FYTD 12.5%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 3.7%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD 13.8%

2008/2009

Jul -1%
Aug 3.5%
Sep -4.7%
Oct -9%
Nov -5.3%
Dec 3.9%
Jan 0.2%
Feb -1.4%
Mar 7.9%
Apr 4.4%
May 2.1%
Jun 3.8%
FUND FYTD 3%
RBA CASH RATE FYTD 4.8%
ASX ALL ORDS FYTD -22.1%

PROFILE

STATISTICAL DATA

PORTFOLIO SUMMARY
VOLATILITY3
11.3%
NUMBER OF STOCKS
32
BETA4
0.63
MAXIMUM DRAW DOWN
-23.1%

FEATURES

  • APIR CODE PCL0005AU
  • REDEMPTION PRICEA$ 1.8686
  • FEES * Management Fee: 1.025%
    Performance Fee: 10.25%
  • Minimum initial investment A$10,000
  • FUM AT MONTH END A$ 877.6m
  • STRATEGY INCEPTION DATE 1 July 2008
  • BenchmarkThe RBA Cash Rate Target plus Australian equity risk premium.

Fund Managers

Rhett Kessler

CIO and Senior Fund Manager

Anton du Preez

Deputy CIO and Fund Manager

Description

The Pengana Australian Equities Fund aims to enhance and preserve investor wealth over a 5- year period via a concentrated core portfolio of principally Australian listed securities. The Fund uses fundamental research to evaluate investments capable of generating the target return over the medium term. Essentially, we are in the business of seeking to preserve capital and make money – we are not in the business of trying to beat the market. We remain focused on acquiring and holding investments that offer predictable, sustainable and well-stewarded after-tax cash earnings yields in excess of 6% that will grow to double digit levels as a percentage of our original entry price in five years. We believe that building a well-diversified portfolio of these “gifts that keep on giving” represents a meaningful way to create and preserve financial independence for our co-investors.

EXPLORE OUR FUNDS

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Axiom International Ethical Fund
Axiom International Ethical Fund
Axiom International Ethical Fund (Hedged)
Axiom International Ethical Fund (Hedged)
Australian Equities Fund
Australian Equities Fund
High Conviction Property Securities Fund
High Conviction Property Securities Fund
Global Small Companies Fund
Global Small Companies Fund
WHEB Sustainable Impact Fund
WHEB Sustainable Impact Fund
Emerging Companies Fund
Emerging Companies Fund
High Conviction Equities Fund
High Conviction Equities Fund
Pengana International Equities Limited (ASX: PIA)
Pengana International Equities Limited (ASX: PIA)
Private Equity Trust (ASX: PE1)
Private Equity Trust (ASX: PE1)
Alpha Israel Fund
Alpha Israel Fund

1. Net performance figures are shown after all fees and expenses, and assume reinvestment of distributions. The benchmark of cash rate plus 6% p.a. is included in the chart as it relates to the Fund’s investment objective and performance fee.  The Fund may invest up to 100% of its assets in equity securities.  The greater risk of investing in equities is reflected in the addition of a margin above the cash rate. No allowance has been made for buy/sell spreads. Please refer to the PDS for information regarding risks. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, the value of investments can go up and down.
2. Inception 1st July 2008.
3. Annualised standard deviation since inception.
4. Relative to ASX All Ordinaries Index. Using daily returns.
*(including GST, net of RITC) of the increase in net asset value subject to the RBA Cash Rate & High Water Mark. For further information regarding fees please see the PDS available on our website.