SUMMARY
The Fund generated a healthy return of 2.1% in November. By way of comparison, the Australian stock market increased by 3.7% in the month, whilst the return of the RBA cash rate plus 6% equated to approximately +0.8% for the month.
Financial year to date, the Fund has achieved a return of +7.6%, ahead of the cash plus 6% benchmark of +4.2% over the same period, whilst the broader market has returned +10.3%. We remain pleased with the continued momentum of the Fund, particularly given its conservative settings and our discipline in avoiding the large component of elevated valuations in a bifurcated market. We are tracking comfortably ahead of our cash plus 6% benchmark.






COMMENTARY
Investors cheered the US election with positive expectations for the Trump/Republican impact on US/global economic policies. “Animal spirits” have been rekindled driving strong retail and institutional demand for risk assets. In our view, this has further decoupled equity valuations from underlying fundamentals as earnings have yet to follow the exuberant expectations embedded in large segments of the market.
Within the Fund, several significant events occurred during November. Firstly, SG Fleet announced that Private Equity Partners (PEP) had made a takeover proposal for the company. This proposal was accepted by the SG Fleet board at $3.50 representing a 30% premium to the pre-announcement share price and a healthy profit for the Fund.
Secondly, the Fund sold out of its remaining holdings in CBA and reduced its holdings in NAB. We are cognisant that both banks represent strong institutions with robust business models and excellent management, however, valuations are extremely stretched. We note that both holdings were originally established at reasonable price to book ratio’s with the NAB’s being at 75% of book value. This contrasts with the current environment of mediocre earnings growth expectations versus record Price to Book ratios for NAB at 1.9x and CBA at 3.6x.
Thirdly, due to a growing bifurcation in domestic valuation multiples and the reduction in several holdings in the portfolio, cash levels are elevated at 16% of the Fund. In our view this is a reflection of the paucity in appropriately priced opportunities in an exuberant market, potentially a function of the weight of money from a combination of superannuation, passive fund flows as well as momentum buying. Having said this we are currently building two significant new holdings in companies that meet our requirements that should absorb a significant portion of our cash on hand.
While we are cognisant of the notional cost of not being fully invested, our focus remains on capital preservation while generating reasonable returns. We remained disciplined in not using our investors’ money to manage our business risk.