SUMMARY
Following the first two robust months in the quarter, the Fund had a softer close returning -1.1% in September. By way of comparison, the RBA cash rate plus 6% returned approximately 0.8%, while the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index returned -0.5%.
The Fund continues to outperform its benchmark since inception just over 17 years ago, with a return of 8.9% per annum versus its RBA equity risk premium adjusted benchmark of 8.6% and the market return of 7.5% for the same period.
We remain focused on our objective of capital preservation while generating a fair return for equity risk. We believe equity valuations are generally elevated, particularly in light of the subdued economic fundamentals, and cash levels in the Fund remain at 12%.







COMMENTARY
Over the quarter, the Fund had a long tail of winners, which was dominated by Evolution Mining, rewarding our investment thesis/patience with this holding. Consistently growing gold production, a record gold price (the company took an active decision to be unhedged), and a robust copper price (also unhedged) continue to generate enormous cash flows for shareholders. Other significant winners included BHP, Stockland, NAB, Ampol and Westpac Bank. The small list of detractors included CSL, James Hardie and Amcor.
During the quarter, we trimmed our holdings in Resmed, Evolution Mining, Medibank and Stockland. Conversely, we added to our existing holdings in Bluescope, BHP, Amcor and JHX. Cash levels remain at 12%, providing us with increased flexibility to deploy capital as new opportunities emerge.
We are particularly cognizant of a heightened level of “twitchiness” amongst market participants. Fund flows appear to be playing an increasingly important role in driving share prices (rather than fundamentals). Importantly, while business activity remains reasonably solid, in general underlying earnings have not kept up with valuations.
To demonstrate the mixed signals from our data sources, we have included a few generalised observations from discussions with company management:
a) Victoria remains a problematic state operationally. The combination of crime/fraud and additional regulatory requirements/taxes makes for subdued profitability. Similarly, NZ businesses continue to struggle.
b) Discretionary Retailers are finding trading activity “patchy” and at times “inexplicably subdued”.
c) Labour and rental costs remain elevated, with productivity improvements required to stave off negative operating leverage.
d) Queensland business activity is strong due to a combination of positive net migration, lower regulation and Olympic preparations.
e) Bad debts, particularly at the banks, remain low. A robust Private Credit market may be allowing for some relief.
f) The labour market is no longer tight, staff turnover is down, sometimes too much.
g) Pokie machine revenues continue to surprise on the upside, currently returning high single digit like for likes on last year. This remains the most positive signal for cash liquidity in the economy.
In summary, while the September quarter delivered strong returns, we remain cautiously positioned due to the disconnect between overall market valuations and underlying earnings. In this context, we believe the portfolio’s emphasis on companies with valuations supported by after-tax cash earnings yields is both prudent and well-suited to the current environment.