Ampol Ltd. engages in the supply of transport fuels. It offers business services, fuel cards, lubricants and oil finder. The firm operates through the following segments: Fuels and Infrastructure, Convenience Retail, Z Energy, and Corporate. The Fuel and Infrastructure segment includes Lytton refining, bulk fuels sales, trading and shipping, infrastructure, future energy, and seaoil business. The Convenience Retail segment covers fuels and shop offerings at the company's Australian network of stores. The Z Energy deals with fuel offerings in New Zealand market. The Corporate segment represents the head office and transactions related to finance, taxation, treasury, HR, IT, legal. and secretarial functions. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
COMMENTARY
The simple story of April was a rally in technology and datacentre exposures as AI infrastructure was in focus. The IT sector was up 12%. Real estate was a great example of the disconnect. The sector was up by 7% but that was almost entirely driven by Goodman Group that was up 16% while the traditional side of the sector was down materially.
The Fund benefited from the strong performance from BHP, which illustrated its market power as it resolved the seven month stand-off with Chinese iron ore customers. The company’s twin pillars of at-scale copper and iron ore production, and a fortress balance sheet with dependable cash flows remain the core of the investment case. Aristocrat Leisure vindicated our March additions at lower prices; the company’s defensive cash flows and durable market position continue to compound. Ampol was also a positive contributor although nothing like you might expect when oil is hitting US$120. Refining margins remained elevated and fuel-security policy considerations supported sentiment.
The most challenging exposures were in Health Care, declining 6% in a sector-wide derating precipitated by Cochlear’s monster downgrade. CSL and Resmed both fell but their underlying franchise quality is unchanged. CSL’s global plasma collection network remains the industry’s deepest and, having taken its medicine on Vifor, now pairs a cleaner balance sheet with a free cash flow yield above 10%. ResMed’s structural tailwinds of an under-treated sleep apnea population and durable margins from a duopoly device market remain intact.
The other area of underperformance was the Real Estate sector where our exposure to residential property names Stockland and Mirvac suffered from the uncertainty on rates and tax policy going into the Federal budget while Goodman Group spiked on AI euphoria.
At the recent Macquarie Australia Conference we observed that whilst most companies continue to deliver strong resilient earnings the ability to take price to offset cost inflation will be more difficult than it was in the stimulatory times post covid. Those businesses with the strongest franchises and the best industry structures will differentiate themselves in the year ahead.
Against this backdrop we continued to build on positions established earlier in the year. We added to our Orica holding, where the company’s transition from a cyclical mining explosives business toward a higher-margin mining technology franchise continues to offer durable returns on invested capital and strong free cash flow generation at a reasonable price. We also added to Aristocrat Leisure despite April’s rally, taking the view that the company’s defensive cash flows and proven management discipline remain attractively priced for a business of its quality. We trimmed Telstra into strength following sustained outperformance, recycling capital toward opportunities with greater upside relative to risk.
The team remains comfortable with the Fund’s positioning. April’s narrow, momentum-driven rally in AI infrastructure alongside broad weakness in defensive earners is the kind of market in which our absolute-return philosophy and after-tax cash earnings yield discipline are most easily mistaken for caution. The Fund’s average after-tax cash earnings yield remains comfortably above 6%, a level that has historically signalled attractive entry points. We continue to focus on high-quality businesses led by proven management teams and supported by resilient cash flows, and we are content to forego participation in narrow thematic rallies in order to preserve the durable yield characteristics that have defined the Fund since inception.