Market Review

Global equities experienced their first back-to-back monthly gains since the start of 2022, as investors bet that inflation has peaked and that the US Federal Reserve will slow the pace of monetary tightening.

Remarks from the Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, signalling that the US central bank would slow the pace of interest rate rises in December, delivered a boost for markets on the last day of the month. The Fed is now expected to raise interest rates by 0.5% rather than 0.75% at its December meeting.

The European equity market fared better this month. Greater fiscal support from governments and a mild autumn have helped to ensure gas storage facilities are still at full capacity, improving the region’s economic outlook.

There was also investor optimism that China will begin to ease its strict zero-Covid policies that have held back economic growth.

The rally has been cyclical in nature with Industrial & Material stocks performing particularly well. Value outperformed growth.

Fund Review

The Fund outperformed the benchmark over the month, which respectively returned +5.9% and +2.1%.

Health, Sustainable Transport and Cleaner Energy were the best performing themes.

Infineon Technologies was the best performing stock. The company makes efficient power semiconductors with a market-leading position in the automotive end-market. The company updated its long-term operating targets, upgrading both sales and margin expectations.

Solar Edge, Fisher and Paykel and Silicon Labs also performed well.

The strategy, which only invests in companies providing solutions to sustainability challenges, does not hold certain mega-cap technology stocks including Apple, Tesla & Amazon – this was a tailwind for performance. For the same reason, the strategy does not invest in Financials and this underweight was a headwind.

Our mid-cap bias was supportive for performance as was the investment team’s stock selection.

Outlook

Overall, the earnings season has highlighted pockets of weakening demand. We are also seeing attention start to turn to 2023, where companies are generally flagging a lack of visibility on growth rates as we come out of the post-Covid recovery period. Interest rate expectations are coming down, although there is likely to be continued volatility as winter approaches and the market continues to feel the effects of the energy crisis.

The portfolio is unlikely to be immune to the industrial and consumer demand environments. However, we are confident our holdings are well positioned to capture the impact-driven growth opportunities in their industries over the longer-term.

COP27 – more of a floor than a ceiling

So Rishi Sunak did eventually bow to pressure and join other world leaders at the second most attended climate negotiations of all time. But as global attention now drifts across the Arabian Peninsula from Sharm El-Sheikh to Qatar, what was ultimately achieved at this year’s climate talks?

Some important steps forward

There were clearly some important successes that came out of the COP27 negotiations including, most obviously, the establishment of a ‘Loss and Damage’ fund. This looked impossible just a few years ago, but perhaps spurred by the appalling flood damage in Pakistan and Nigeria, delegates did commit to establish a pooled fund to support action in countries most affected by climate change.  Key operational decisions such as what criteria triggers a payout, and the size and source of contributions, will be hammered out between now and the end of COP28. The fact that developed countries still haven’t fulfilled previous commitments to provide US$100bn a year to help developing countries clearly doesn’t bode well. A recent report also indicated that these countries will likely need as much as US$1 trillion per annum.

There were other good things as well. China and the US are again formally talking about how to galvanise global support for more aggressive action and ‘Brazil is back’ with President-elect Lula committing to reversing damage to the Amazon rainforest.

Improved targets

There were even some increased commitments. The EU managed to eke out a 2% increase in the ambition of its 2030 emission reductions target and Mexico raised its target – albeit against a ‘business as usual’ scenario – from 22% to 35% and even offered to extend this to a 40% cut by 2030 contingent on international support.

Following on from the US$8.5bn deal struck in Glasgow to finance the early retirement of coal power plants in South Africa, Indonesia also announced a US$20bn deal to accelerate the retirement of their own coal plants. This will ensure a peaking of Indonesian power sector emissions by 2030 and net zero carbon emissions by 2040 – a decade earlier than the previous deadline.  Vietnam is reported to be the next in the queue for a similar type of deal.

Disappointment and missed opportunities

And yet, the overall mood at the end of the conference was still of disappointment. Alok Sharma, the UK’s outgoing President of COP was visibly angry as the session came to an end. “Emissions peaking before 2025 as the science tells us is necessary? Not in this text. Clear follow-through on the phase-down of coal? Not in this text. Clear commitment to phase out all fossil fuels? Not in this text”, he protested.

These objectives were supported by over eighty countries at the talks but were ultimately left out of the final agreement. What’s more, new language was included that emphasised the role of ‘low carbon energy’. A term widely understood to represent an effort to include support for natural gas in future emission reduction initiatives.  Many commentators pointed the finger at the army of fossil-fuel lobbyists at the talks.

A floor not a ceiling

Ultimately though, the COP process should not be seen as setting a ceiling for ambition on climate, but rather as a floor. With 192 countries required to agree unanimously on the outcome the bar is set quite low and, notwithstanding the emotional scenes in Paris in 2015, it is rarely sensible to look to the COP process for hope. There is still scope for optimism, but for that you are better off looking at the actions of leading businesses, cities, communities… and investors. These groups have become not just powerful advocates for change, but also agents for real progress on the ground.