July Report

We expect several of our larger holdings to deliver potentially significant catalysts during the second half of 2026. In particular, we anticipate contract announcements from Artrya and IperionX, as well as German government funding for OncoSil. Clarity Pharmaceuticals is expected to report results from two Phase III studies of its prostate cancer diagnostic, while several other healthcare holdings are progressing potential partnering transactions.

Australian pancreatic cancer radiotherapy company OncoSil rose 64% after presenting results from its TRIPP-FXX study at the European Society for Medical Oncology congress. Although the study was not powered to demonstrate efficacy, it is encouraging that several independent studies and patient registries have now suggested a survival benefit. We discussed the OncoSil investment thesis and the significance of the TRIPP-FXX results in greater detail in last month’s report.

On the negative side, Australian cardiac CT artificial intelligence company Artrya fell 34%, having risen 23% in the previous month. The company reported what had been expected to be its first quarter of material revenue but fell short of expectations because of the time required to automate cardiologists’ workflows for processing scans.

Before plaque analysis can be performed, cardiologists must currently obtain approval from insurers through hospital administrators, a process that can take several days. Artrya has now automated this step. We expect the benefits of this solution to become evident during the current quarter and believe subsequent hospital implementations should be considerably smoother.

Artrya has contracted with three hospital groups that collectively perform approximately 25,000 cardiac CT scans annually. We expect all three groups to be operational during the fourth quarter, with the potential for rapid adoption thereafter. Artrya’s first two software modules generate approximately US$700 per patient. A third module, expected to receive approval during the fourth quarter, would increase the total potential revenue to approximately US$1,000 per patient in calendar 2027.

Artrya’s new SAPPHIRE registry, which is expected to commence in the coming months, includes hospital operators performing approximately 400,000 cardiac CT scans annually. If Artrya can convert these operators into paying customers, they alone could represent up to US$400 million of high-margin annual software revenue. Approximately 5.5 million cardiac CT scans are performed each year in the United States, meaning these operators account for only around 7% of the total market. With Artrya currently valued at approximately A$780 million, or US$550 million, we believe there could be substantial upside if the company executes successfully.

Our three critical-minerals holdings, IperionX, Brazilian Rare Earths and Metallium, also had a weak month, declining by 31%, 16% and 26%, respectively, amid a broad sector sell-off. The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF, which holds IperionX, fell 24%, while the Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF, which holds Brazilian Rare Earths, declined 21%.

The sector performed exceptionally well during the first quarter, supported by rising tensions with China over critical-minerals supply and the Iran war. These developments contributed to stronger electric-vehicle demand and a 100% quarter-on-quarter increase in rare-earth concentrate prices. From May, however, the sector experienced a substantial correction.

Sentiment began to improve again in August after President Trump met with mining executives at the White House on 7 August and announced several large critical-minerals funding commitments. These included approximately A$400 million for Sunrise Metals’ scandium project near Parkes in New South Wales.

As discussed in last month’s report, IperionX raised US$50 million at A$3.20 per share. The company now has a very strong balance sheet, with approximately US$85 million in cash.

In early August, IperionX hosted a webinar and released an updated investor presentation. In our view, the most important chart detailed the breadth and stage of the company’s customer engagements. Chief Executive Officer Taso Arima indicated that contracts are expected across four principal markets aerospace, consumer electronics, automotive and defence, although no definitive timeframe was provided.

Approximately 35 million IperionX shares have been sold short in Australia. A further 950,000 ADRs equivalents to 9.5 million ordinary shares have been sold short in the United States. Combined, this represents almost 12% of the company’s shares outstanding and could amplify any positive share-price response to contract announcements or other material catalysts.

The other major potential catalyst is government funding for IperionX’s Titan or Atlas mining projects, the latter formerly known as Covia. The estimated net present value of the Titan project is currently roughly equivalent to IperionX’s entire market capitalisation, suggesting that the market is attributing little or no value to the asset. Given the White House’s clear willingness to fund strategically important domestic critical-minerals projects, we continue to believe that government support is likely.