SUMMARY
The Fund fell slightly, returning -0.3%, during another volatile month. By way of comparison, the RBA cash rate plus 6% returned approximately 0.8%, while the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index returned 0.5%.
The Fund continues to outperform its benchmark since inception, just over 17 years ago, with a return of 8.9% per annum versus its RBA equity risk premium adjusted benchmark of 8.6% and the market return of 7.5% over the same period.
We remain focused on our objective of capital preservation while generating a fair return for equity risk. Given the extended exuberance of market valuations, tight discipline is required. Cash levels in the Fund remain at 12% with selective new holdings replacing more fully valued holdings.







COMMENTARY
Volatility continued to build in October as investors grew increasingly jittery about the circular nature of revenues propping up valuations in the AI market. Oversized reactions to the probability of interest rate cuts were also a feature of both domestic and global markets.
Ironically, confidence levels amongst Australian consumers continue to improve retail sales and other economic activity, just as investors realise that the gap between stretched valuations generally and reasonable fundamental valuations could be problematic. Passive investing (See CBA share price movements) and momentum investing (See DroneShield as a classic example) remains largely responsible for this environment.
The Fund’s purchases included selectively increasing our existing holdings in Amcor and IAG, while new holdings were established in ANZ Group and L1 Group. Material sales were made to the Fund’s property exposures – Stockland and Mirvac. Furthermore, Evolution Mining, Telstra and NAB were also trimmed into an exuberant market.
In terms of attribution, domestic construction holdings in Stockland, Mirvac, MAAS Group and the broader-based James Hardies were positive contributors. Other positive contributors were BHP, Ampol, NIB and Telstra. CSL, Aristocrat and Resmed were our detractors for the month.
Retaining our discipline in an environment where most research commentary revolves around index weightings and short-term earnings movements has been challenging but manageable. We remain focused on predictable medium-term underlying cash earnings as the basis for deploying our capital.
Importantly, we have calibrated our holdings for our expectation of volatile markets, preferring, as always, to focus on our absolute return benchmark with a healthy cash balance when the outlook is unclear.