SGH Ltd. is an investment company, which focuses on industrial services, media, and investments. It operates through the following business segments: WesTrac, Coates, Boral, Energy, Media Investments, and Other Investments. The WesTrac segment provides heavy equipment sales and support to customers. The Coates segment offers a range of general and specialist equipment to a variety of markets including engineering, building construction and maintenance, mining and resources, manufacturing, government, and events. The Boral segment is a construction materials group. The Media Investments segment relates to investments in listed and unlisted media organizations. The Other Investments segment covers other investments and incorporates listed investments and property. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
COMMENTARY
May saw most global markets rally, with the US index up 6.2%, driven by a 10% rally in the NASDAQ. The wild gyrations caused by dramatic shifts in trade policy through April have been replaced by exuberance in the short term – the US market is now 22% above the April lows (NASDAQ up 29% since the lows). This remarkable turnaround suggests that investors are assuming the tariffs will continue to be wound back, or that there will be no significant negative impact on earnings, or that inflation will not become a major problem as tariffs potentially lead to higher prices. Given the erratic nature of the tariff policy announcements, it would not shock us to see further market volatility over the next few months.
The Australian market rallied 3.8%, with tech stocks leading the way here too (up 19%). Australian small-cap stocks rose 5.8%, with industrials up 4.0%, and the resources sector up 10.1%, driven by gold stocks (despite a flat gold price).
The true impact on economic growth (hence earnings) from the current trade policy movements is difficult to determine. The distraction itself is likely to cause consumers and corporations to postpone certain purchasing decisions, which may impact shorter-term activity. However, financial conditions remain supportive, employment markets are proving resilient, and there remains a stimulatory aspect to fiscal policy. Hence, there may be a shallow trough in earnings. A worse outcome would be predicated on more challenging financial conditions (equity markets down, credit spreads up, etc), softer employment data, and worsening sentiment. Markets are currently assuming a shallow impact, and the picture will become clearer over the coming months.
Our key positive contributors in May were:
Catapult (+43%) reported revenue growth of 19% for the year to March 31, along with 93% growth in profits, as its sports data business continues to expand worldwide. Technology One (+37%) reported a 29% profit growth, driven by 19% revenue growth, which led to profit upgrades and a stronger share price. Generation Development (+34%) bounced from what we considered an irrational price fall in April, announcing an alliance with BlackRock, which would also buy a small stake in the company.
Mainfreight (+27%) delivered earnings above expectations, noting a short term boost to global trading volumes ahead of potential tariff introductions. HUB24 (+16%) and Netwealth (+14%) continue to bounce after an overreaction in April.
Our key negative contributors in May were:
Propel Funerals (-14%) issued a profit downgrade following softer death volumes. ALS Group (-7%) drifted after posting a reasonable profit result, combined with a capital raising to invest in its global laboratory network. Jumbo Interactive (-4%), Imdex (-4%) and EQT Group (-2%) drifted in the absence of any company specific news.